SCENARIO PLANNING

We define 'scenario planning' as active planning for alternative futures.

To ensure a practical approach is adopted, we sketch out four different scenarios (views) of the future (Starship, Titanic, Bounty, Windjammer) by six dimensions (leisure/family, government, economic, work, education, global).

This generic version is adjusted to match the needs of the Client.

Our methodology has been adapted from Scenario Based Strategy Development (SBSD) which has been used internationally for about 20 years with a number of well-known champions. Our methodology's internal improvements focus on how to translate 'findings' and 'conclusions' into useful planning realities.

The three most important benefits of the our approach are: high flexibility and adaptability to individual situations and problems; premium placed on identification and clarification of issues; and ensuring a high degree of organisation 'ownership' in the final product.

The four scenarios are work-shopped (both as a full group and in smaller syndicates) and the two most popular (or seen as most probable) are then more fully developed within a strategic (corporate) planning context.

This includes: Vision, Mission(s), Environmental Analysis (from the scenarios and a SWOT/PEST), Critical Success Factors (those labels indicating areas in which the organisation cannot fail to deliver: Financial Achievement, Customer Focus, Internal Business Process, and Staff Growth, Learning and Enjoyment), Objectives (end-statements of what we want to achieve under each CSF), Performance Statements (what does the organisation and its stakeholders actually receive for the effort), and Strategy Guidance (How-To) for lower level planning.

Pre-Workshop
We carry out interviews with key officers of the organisation, develop the scenarios and validate with the organisation. We distribute the hard-copy versions of the scenarios (two to three pages) and a powerpoint slide presentation (seven to ten slides) to each participant about two weeks before the workshop.

The Workshop
The scenarios will be examined and debated, with brainstorming and other techniques used to further develop the scenarios, explore reactions and proactive solutions within each alternative future. Phase 1 is used to analyse each of the four scenarios and Phase 2 is used to develop Strategic (Corporate) plans for the selected two scenarios.

Post-Workshop
We write up the plans and provide expert commentary on what has been observed and what the group has decided during the exercise. We provide options on future benefits that should emanate from the scenario planning.

The organisation will move into its future with a better grip on the possibilities, alternatives and the need for contingencies. As the future unfolds, the organisation will be better equipped to develop the policies and processes necessary to successfully meet the challenges.

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